Could parliament vote for a referendum on Boris Johnson’s deal?

As MPs prepare to have their say on the prime minister’s new deal, parliament still may not make up its mind, writes John Rentoul

Thursday 17 October 2019 19:57 BST
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My estimate is that a vote to put the deal to a referendum would be lost by a majority of about 40
My estimate is that a vote to put the deal to a referendum would be lost by a majority of about 40

Confusion reigns on whether MPs will vote on the question of a referendum in their Saturday session. Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, said Labour would make the case for putting Boris Johnson’s deal back to the people for a final say, but many advocates of a referendum are arguing against tabling an amendment at this stage.

They are right to be cautious, because the numbers do not appear to add up for a referendum – as long as there is a chance that the Brexit deal will be approved.

My estimate is that a vote to put the deal to a referendum would be lost by a majority of about 40. I calculate this by starting with the indicative vote held in April, when the House of Commons tested support for various ways of breaking the Brexit deadlock – and rejected them all.

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