If you're only voting Tory because Boris Johnson got a Brexit deal, this is what you need to know now

Johnson’s deal splits the UK into two: Northern Ireland will follow EU rules without a say on them, effectively becoming an EU colony. And as for Great Britain.... well, he hasn’t nailed anything down

Voters are so fed up with Brexit that many believe Boris Johnson’s bilge about how he has got a wonderful deal. But it’s a terrible sell-out deal, which damages our power and prosperity – and shows why Brexit is such an appalling idea in the first place.

We’re in danger of sleepwalking into a national disaster. The prime minister has avoided scrutiny of his deal, first by parliament and now by the media. But with just one day until the general election, it’s time to strip the lipstick off his pig of a deal before it’s too late.

The first question which needs answering is: why the deal is considered a sell out by some? The big lie of the referendum was that we can “take back control” of our laws without damaging our prosperity. That’s because, if we stop following EU rules, we will rip ourselves out of a market accounting for half our trade. The only way to avoid the terrible choice between doing what others tell us to do and harming our economy is to stay in the EU – where we sit at the top table making the rules.

Johnson’s deal splits the UK into two. Northern Ireland will follow EU rules without a say on them, effectively becoming an EU colony. As for Great Britain, well he hasn’t nailed anything down, so we won’t know for sure what’s happening until the end of next year. But the prime minister will then face the same dilemma between meekly following EU rules and thwacking the economy.

Next, if you think we will be out by January, think again. True, we won’t be an EU member after 31 January 2020 if the Tories get a majority. But nothing will change until the end of next year – apart from the fact that we’ll have lost our voting rights. That’s because the prime minister has agreed to a “transition” period during which we will follow EU rules, again without a say on them. He did this because we would otherwise have crashed out of the EU with no deal at all, and that would have been catastrophic, but that just underlines the other big problem with Johnson’s deal: he has just shifted the cliff edge until next Christmas.

Trade deals normally take five to 10 years to nail down because so much is at stake that every comma is fought over. The EU’s deal with Canada, for example, took seven years to pin down. The prime minister has boxed himself into such a tight timetable that he will either have to give the EU pretty much everything it wants or we’ll crash out.

Surely he’ll be given more time if he needs it though? The divorce deal does allow for up to two years of extra time. But Johnson will have to agree to this by 1 July 2020, and we will also have to pay a price of at least £1bn for every month of extra time, and probably let EU trawlers fish into our waters too.

Lots of people think it would be wise to have the option of extra time, but the prime minister has said an explicit “no” in his manifesto. In theory, he could break that promise. It wouldn’t be the first time he has gone back on his word, but he would need to do so by July and his hardline supporters would scream blue murder, so that doesn’t seem likely.

All that talk about a template for a deal is also worth questioning. The one the government boasts about – the “political declaration” sketching out our future relationship – commits us to follow swathes of EU rules, yet again without a vote on them.

To repeat, there’s nothing much wrong with the regulations. After all, we have spent 40 years helping write them. In any case, why would we want low standards on workers’ rights, the environment, consumer protection, nuclear safety, data protection, state aid and so forth?

But there’s a big difference between being a rule-maker and a rule-taker – and we still wouldn’t get anything like the access we currently get to the lucrative EU market.

What about the zero tariffs we were promised? Yes, we might get that, provided we follow those EU rules designed to ensure fair competition. But that still won’t ensure frictionless trade for our manufacturing industry, as there will be customs checks. Think of our car makers. Millions of parts whiz backwards and forwards across the English Channel before the cars are finally ready. Customs checks will gum up these just-in-time supply chains.

Oh, and tariffs are irrelevant for services, which account for 80% of our economy. What blocks trade in services are regulations, and the EU won’t give us the freedom to sell our services in its market, because Johnson says he wants to stop free movement of EU citizens to the UK. We’ll be damaged in two ways: we won’t sell the EU our services; and we won’t get their nurses to take care of our sick and their other workers who contribute so much to our economy and society.

Remember how Johnson said “f*ck business” when he was foreign secretary? That’s exactly what he’ll do, even if he gets a trade deal. The economy will be £70bn a year smaller in the medium run than if we stay in the EU, according to an analysis by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Where are we then going to find the money for hospitals, schools, social care and the police?

But don’t for a second think, come 31 January, that will be the last time you hear the word Brexit. Like the slogan on the side of his bus during the referendum, “get Brexit done”, it’s a big unthruth. If the Conservatives win the election tomorrow, Johnson will indeed ram his withdrawal agreement through parliament. But that won’t remotely be the end of it.

There’ll then be a desperate attempt to stop us crashing out the EU’s market at the end of the year. This may trigger a new bout of Tory infighting, as MPs realise just how many rules we’ll have to follow even to get a third-rate deal and complain it contradicts their manifesto commitment that “there will be no political alignment”.

But don’t think for a moment that quitting without a deal will put an end to the agony. It will just open another particularly virulent chapter in the Brexit crisis. Our economy will seize up and we’ll soon be begging the EU for a deal.

So unless you want to humiliate the country and f*ck the economy, don’t vote for Johnson on Thursday. Vote tactically for the candidate with the best chance of beating the Tories, wherever you are. If we get a hung parliament, we can hold a final say referendum, stop Brexit and never have to think about this miserable topic again.

Hugo Dixon is chair of InFacts