Yemen is the Middle East’s arms bazaar – and the Saudis would be unwise to underestimate Houthis

Analysis: The Saudi drone attack – which has halved oil output – may be a sign of levelling the playing field in future wars between rich and poor countries, writes Patrick Cockburn

Damage to the infrastructure at the Kuirais oil field in Buqayq (AP)

Saudi Arabia has always underestimated the military ability of the Houthis in Yemen. In March 2015, the Saudi defence minister Mohammed bin Salman, later appointed crown prince, launched what was meant to be a short, decisive bombing campaign in Yemen to evict the Houthis – a campaign still going on four-and-a-half years later.

The Saudis were evidently caught by surprise by the Houthi capacity to use a long-distance drone, since drones depend on GPS systems to find their target. These can be jammed, says a specialist in drone warfare, who did not want to be named, but the Saudis failed to do so at Abqaiq and Khurais – the sites of Saturday’s unprecedented attacks – despite their crucial importance to the Saudi oil industry.

Houthi military proficiency is the fruit of continuous warfare. The Saudis backed the Yemeni government in six separate wars against the Houthi tribes in north Yemen, who practice a variant of Shia Islam known as Zaidism, in the 2000s. The government forces failed to defeat the Houthis, but the wars did mean that their fighters gained significant military experience.